The world's mainstream media--and I read them with interest due to factors apart from the Iran war--The Economist, Financial Times, Bloomberg, the New York Times have been characterizing the war as a losing proposition for both the US and Israel. Their narrative is finding adherents as I write this.
The MAGA--The MAGA were not provided with a forceful narrative as to why this war was a necessary war. Why this war was not a "forever" war. In other words, no one even attempted to sell the war to the MAGA infantry.
And now the wild card:
1. The Iranian people--assuming that 85% of the population are either against the regime or at minimum, apathetic--are not given the "agency" role they have richly earned. They came to the streets in late December and were massacred en masse. They are being silent, which is not equal to "being silenced". When your enemy is fighting and getting hammered, you would not wish to interfere in that process. You "bide" your time.
The Extent of the active support of the Islamic Republic:
And now a final word with the people who read Mehdi's substack. Mehdi has gotten a good perspective on the situation. I would like to add a new one, one which is not widely understood and in the process, not discussed.
Anecdotally, one hears that 15% of Iran's population support the Islamic Republic (90,000,000 * 0.15 = 13,500,000) and assuming 0.5% of that figure (13,500,000 * 0.005 = 67,500) is what could be characterized as the "hard core" (this number includes the active revolutionary guard, basij and other armed groups), the US, Israel and subsequently, the armed anti-Islamic Republic can deliver enough damage to render a fraction of the 67,500 immobilized, thus rendering the remaining out of the theater of kinetic activities. Of course, these "cultist" will move to the shadows and engage in terrorism but this can be managed.
What I am arguing is that the path to victory is not uncertain but quite curvy and at times not paved. (asphalt versus dirt road). But Iran, once liberated, will be the biggest seminal event in modern human history, equal to, if not greater, than the collapse of the Berlin Wall? Why? Because with the Berlin Wall, we had the collapse of Communism. With the fall of the Islamic Republic, we will usher the fall of Islamic militancy, which has been gnawing at the world for nearly half a century.
Thank you for taking the time to share the objectives of the mainstream media. Very helpful. I’ve scanned their headlines and your comment is in line with those headlines. It only makes sense that the mainstream media would have such a view - because Trump. Unless you have read careful and deliberate assessments from this group that supports their position, I’ll just assume that I’m right. And I say this knowing that the coalition (US, Israel, etc…) have their hands full with many challenges still to come.
On the Republican Party support (I don’t want to address this as MAGA because that’s a portion of the party) for the war. About 10% is the “woke right” led by Tucker and his group that are against the war and advancing stunning conspiracy theories that are unsubstantiated. The other 90% of the party supports POTUS and sees this action as necessary to eliminate a very dangerous theocratic regime that has been at war with the US for 47 years.
I personally believe that Trump has no choice but to achieve his objectives (eliminate nuclear threat, eliminate missile threat, eliminate the proxy network) whether by force or by negotiation. The reason is because Iran is a proxy for China & Russia and any other outcome would be catastrophic. Taking control Kharg island would be a huge achievement and would allow the US to dictate energy policy globally.
Again, a sober analysis.
However, we have two challenges:
The world's mainstream media--and I read them with interest due to factors apart from the Iran war--The Economist, Financial Times, Bloomberg, the New York Times have been characterizing the war as a losing proposition for both the US and Israel. Their narrative is finding adherents as I write this.
The MAGA--The MAGA were not provided with a forceful narrative as to why this war was a necessary war. Why this war was not a "forever" war. In other words, no one even attempted to sell the war to the MAGA infantry.
And now the wild card:
1. The Iranian people--assuming that 85% of the population are either against the regime or at minimum, apathetic--are not given the "agency" role they have richly earned. They came to the streets in late December and were massacred en masse. They are being silent, which is not equal to "being silenced". When your enemy is fighting and getting hammered, you would not wish to interfere in that process. You "bide" your time.
The Extent of the active support of the Islamic Republic:
And now a final word with the people who read Mehdi's substack. Mehdi has gotten a good perspective on the situation. I would like to add a new one, one which is not widely understood and in the process, not discussed.
Anecdotally, one hears that 15% of Iran's population support the Islamic Republic (90,000,000 * 0.15 = 13,500,000) and assuming 0.5% of that figure (13,500,000 * 0.005 = 67,500) is what could be characterized as the "hard core" (this number includes the active revolutionary guard, basij and other armed groups), the US, Israel and subsequently, the armed anti-Islamic Republic can deliver enough damage to render a fraction of the 67,500 immobilized, thus rendering the remaining out of the theater of kinetic activities. Of course, these "cultist" will move to the shadows and engage in terrorism but this can be managed.
What I am arguing is that the path to victory is not uncertain but quite curvy and at times not paved. (asphalt versus dirt road). But Iran, once liberated, will be the biggest seminal event in modern human history, equal to, if not greater, than the collapse of the Berlin Wall? Why? Because with the Berlin Wall, we had the collapse of Communism. With the fall of the Islamic Republic, we will usher the fall of Islamic militancy, which has been gnawing at the world for nearly half a century.
Thank you for taking the time to share the objectives of the mainstream media. Very helpful. I’ve scanned their headlines and your comment is in line with those headlines. It only makes sense that the mainstream media would have such a view - because Trump. Unless you have read careful and deliberate assessments from this group that supports their position, I’ll just assume that I’m right. And I say this knowing that the coalition (US, Israel, etc…) have their hands full with many challenges still to come.
On the Republican Party support (I don’t want to address this as MAGA because that’s a portion of the party) for the war. About 10% is the “woke right” led by Tucker and his group that are against the war and advancing stunning conspiracy theories that are unsubstantiated. The other 90% of the party supports POTUS and sees this action as necessary to eliminate a very dangerous theocratic regime that has been at war with the US for 47 years.
I personally believe that Trump has no choice but to achieve his objectives (eliminate nuclear threat, eliminate missile threat, eliminate the proxy network) whether by force or by negotiation. The reason is because Iran is a proxy for China & Russia and any other outcome would be catastrophic. Taking control Kharg island would be a huge achievement and would allow the US to dictate energy policy globally.
Shining a bright light on the simple truth. Thank you!